It is tournament season. I will try to share my picks and some analysis for every NCAA conference tournament. Forgive me if I don’t have time to get in depth on a few. There are 32 conference tournaments! Let’s start with my favorite conference, the Horizon League.
1st Round
#3 Green Bay over #10 Youngstown St. (UWGB 81, YSU 67)
#6 Valparaiso over #7 Detroit (Detroit 80, Valpo 82)
#4 Milwaukee over #9 Illinois-Chicago (UWM 73, UIC 67)
#5 Cleveland St. over #8 Loyola (IL) (CSU 80, Loyola 66)
2nd Round
Green Bay over Valpo (Detroit 62, UWGB 53)
Cleveland St. over Milwaukee (UWM 82, CSU 75)
Semifinals
#2 Wright St. over Green Bay (Wright St. 69, Detroit 50)
#1 Butler over Cleveland St. (Butler 68, UWM 59)
Final
Butler over Wright St.
Home Team Advantage
Horizon League teams have beat each other up this year by playing well at home. This tournament is designed for the higher seeds to win, and they usually do. Don’t expect many upsets.
The potential Green Bay vs. Wright St. semifinal will be a home game for Wright St., who will bus plenty of fans from nearby Dayton. Green Bay has a long drive to Indy. The Pheonix literally brought about ten fans to Hinkle last year. However, they could get some help from Butler fans rooting against rival Wright St.
Butler plays at home no matter what. The only team that will have a chance at Hinkle Fieldhouse is Wright S. The Raiders will bring a lot of fans on the short trip from Dayton. They can get open looks with ball movement and can play an aggressive man-to-man defense that could disrupt Butler’s offense.
The game at the ARC will be won behind the arch
Any game between the 3 through 7 seeds in this conference is a toss-up this year, so the Valpo-Detroit game could go either way. The big difference will be 3-point shooting. Expect the Crusaders to shoot well in their home arena (the ARC) if the Titans give them open looks. With opportunities to shoot the three, Valpo can score over 70 points. Bowling Green showed the Crusaders’ weakness defending inside in an ESPNU BracketBuster match-up last week. If Detroit makes some threes early, they can spread out the Crusaders, opening up the inside.
Update 3/2/2010: My analysis of Detroit-Valpo was right on, but my pick was wrong. Detroit came out and hit two 3-pointers in the first 3 minutes. They spread out Valpo and then attacked the basket. Valpo made ten 3′s, assisted 16 baskets, committed only six turnovers, and still lost the game. I have criticized Homer Drew’s defense for years. I guess it just keeps getting worse.
Update 3/9/2010: Butler dominated Wright St. in the final 70-45. This margin is unusual in a season where Butler’s games were regularly close at the half if not at the end. Butler is the first team to ever go undefeated in both the Horizon League regular season and tournament in the same year. It is also their 4th straight trip to the NCAA Tournament. Butler is now officially in a league all its own.
