The Big Sky gives its top two seeds (Weber St. and Northern Colorado) bis to the semifinals, where they will play the highest remaining seeds. I will update this post to pick the semfinal matchups after the quarterfinals are over.
Quarterfinals
#4 Montana over #5 Northern Arizona (Montana 81, Northern AZ 60)
#3 Montana St. over #6 Portland St. (Portland St. 68, Montana St. 65)
Semifinals
#1 Weber St. over Portland St.
Montana over #2 Northern Colorado
Final
Montana over Weber St.
Quarterfinals
#1 Oakland over #8 UMKC (Oakland 85, UMKC 70)
#2 IUPUI over #7 Western Illinois (IUPUI 77, WIU 68)
#4 S. Dakota St. over #5 IPFW (IPFW 71, SDSU 66)
#3 Oral Roberts over #6 N. Dakota St. (ORU 65, NDSU 64)
Semifinals
Oakland over SDSU (Oakland 71, SDSU 58)
IUPUI over ORU
Final
IUPUI over Oakland
Quarterfinals
#1 Stony Brook over #8 Albany (Stony Brook 68, Albany 59)
#4 Boston U. over #5 Hartford (Boston 87, Hartford 46)
#2 Vermont over #7 UMBC (Vermont 76, UMBC 59)
#3 Maine over #6 New Hampshire (UNH 68, Maine 57)
Semifinals
Boston U. over Stony Brook (Boston 70, Stony Brook 63)
Vermont over Maine
Final
Vermont over Boston U.
Two Tiers
There is a huge separation between the top four and bottom four in this conference, but that doesn’t mean one of the bottom four can’t pull off an upset. New Hampshire over Maine is a possibility I would consider. However, I won’t bet on it. Instead, I’ll take a 4-1 upset in the semis and #2 Vermont dancing. The AEC final is always a treat, so make sure you tune in to ESPN2 at noon on Saturday, March 13th.
Update, 3/6/2010: I should have picked New Hampshire. I was right that they had the best chance at a first round upset, and those kind of upsets have been common in this tournament over the last few years.
1st Round
#8 FL Atlantic over #9 S. Alabama (USA 52, FAU 51)
#4 Western KY over #13 New Orleans (WKU 83, UNO 58)
#5 Arkansas St. over #12 Arkansas-Little Rock (ASU 89, ARLR 82)
#6 Denver over #11 FL Intl. (Denver 71, FIU 64)
#7 LA-Lafayette over #10 LA-Monroe (ULAM 76, ULAL 75)
Quarterfinals
FL Atlantic over #1 Troy (Troy 67, USA 55)
WKU over Ark. St. (WKU 65, ASU 64)
#2 N. Texas over LA-Lafayette
#3 Mid. Tenn. St. over Denver
Semifinals
WKU over FL Atl. (Troy 54, WKU 48)
UNT over MTSU (UNT 63, Denver 56)
Final
WKU over UNT
Update 3/9/10: North Texas defeated Troy 66-63 to win the Sun Belt Championship and earn their ticket to the Big Dance.
The WCC Tournament gives two teams bis to the quarterfinals and two teams bis to the semifinals. The top three teams in this conference are serious contenders, and for two of them a championship is likely their only way into the Big Dance. All three have shown the ability to win big games away from home. Portland has one of the most experienced teams in Div. 1. Gonzaga has athleticism and the ability to make big plays. St. Mary’s is a very clean team, typical of mid-majors who succeed in post-season play, with a 1.4/1 A/T ratio and high free throw and 3-point percentages.
1st Round
#5 Loyola Marymount over #8 Pepperdine (Loyola Mary 87, Pepperdine 84)
#7 Santa Clara over #6 San Diego (San Diego 61, Santa Clara 59)
Quarterfinals
Loyola Mary over #4 San Francisco (LMU 84, USF 76)
#3 Portland over Santa Clara
Semifinals
#1 Gonzaga over Loyola Mary (Gonzaga 77, LMU 62)
#2 St. Mary’s over Portland (St. Mary’s 69, Portland 55)
Final
St. Mary’s over Gonzaga (St. Mary’s 81, Gonzaga 62)
Update 3/8/2010: Called it! St. Mary’s upset Gonzaga in the final just as I predicted and in the way that I predicted. They shot incredibly well, 50.9% from the field and 10-21 (47.6%) from the 3-point line. They made 92.9% of FT’s. They assisted 20 baskets and only turned the ball over 7 times. On the other end of the field, they committed 8 steals and held the Zags to 3-9 from behind the arc. The Gaels are the 8th team in to the 2010 NCAA Tournament.
1st Round
#8 Loyola-MD over #9 Manhattan (Manhattan 94, Loyola 79)
#7 Canisius over #10 Marist (Canisius 72, Marist 54)
Quarterfinals
#1 Siena over Loyola (Siena 78, Manhattan 61)
#5 Rider over #4 St. Peter’s (Rider 69, St. Peter’s 57)
#3 Iona over #6 Niagara (Niagara 68, Iona 64)
#2 Fairfield over Canisius (Fairfield 67, Canisius 57)
Semifinals
Siena over Rider (Siena 72, Rider 62)
Fairfield over Iona (Fairfield 69, Niagara 63)
Final
Siena over Fairfield (Siena 72, Fairfield 65)
Update 3/8/2010: Led by Edwin Ubiles with 27 points, Alex Franklin with a 22/12 double-double, and Ryan Rossiter with a 10/12 double-double. Siena defeated Fairfield 72-65 to earn 2010′s 7th bid to the NCAA Tournament. It’s Siena’s 3rd straight MAAC championship.
1st Round
#3S Davidson over #6N Elon (Elon 66, Davidson 59)
#5S Furman over #4N UNC-Greensboro (UNC-G 66, Furman 65)
#4S Citadel over #5N Samford (Citadel 55, Samford 43)
#3N Chattanooga over #6S GA Southern (Chattanooga 82, GA So. 62)
Quarterfinals
Davidson over @2N Western Carolina (WCU 68, Elon 57)
#1S Wofford over Furman (Wofford 59, UNC-G 47)
#1N Appalachian St. over Citadel (App. St. 71, Citadel 61)
#2 Col. of Charleston over Chattanooga (CoC 96, Chattanooga 69)
Semifinals
Wofford over Davidson (Wofford 77, WCU 58)
Appalachian St. over Col. of Charleston (App. St. 77, CoC 54)
Final
Wofford over Appalachian St. (Wofford 56, App. St. 51)
Update 3/8/2010: Wofford clinched the 2010 NCAA Tournament’s 9th automatic bid with a 56-51 win over Appalachian St. The Terriers held a team that normally scores 75 PPG to 28.8% shooting and only 4-17 from behind the arc. Thanks to excellent ball control, they won a defensive matchup where they only shot 35.2%.
The Colonial is always so deep that there is little hope of guessing it right. Even with all the research, I feel like that is all I’m doing… guessing.
1st Round
#8 Towson over #9 UNC-Wilmington (Towson 91, UNC-W 74)
#5 VCU over #12 Delaware (VCU 66, Delaware 49)
#7 Hofstra over #10 Georgia St. (Hofstra 68, Georgia St. 67)
#6 Drexel over #11 James Madison (JMU 77, Drexel 65)
Quarterfinals
#1 Old Dominion over Towson (ODU 86, T0wson 56)
VCU over #4 George Mason (VCU 75, GMU 60)
#2 Northeastern over Hofstra (Northeastern 74, Hofstra 71)
Drexel over #3 William & Mary (W&M 75, JMU 60)
Semifinals
VCU over Old Dominion (ODU 73, VCU 69 OT)
Northeastern over Drexel (W&M 47, Northeastern 45)
Final
VCU over Northeastern (ODU 60, W&M 53)
Update 3/8/2010: Old Dominion defeated William & Mary 60-53 to earn the 2010 tournament’s 6th bid.
Arch Madness is here!
1st Round
#9 Southern Illinois over #8 Drake (Drake 63, SIU 61)
#7 Missouri St. over #10 Evansville (MSU 52, E’ville 46)
2nd Round
#1 Northern Iowa over SIU (UNI 55, Drake 40)
#5 Bradley over #4 Creighton (Bradley 81, Creighton 62)
Missouri St. over #2 Wichita St. (WSU 73, MSU 63)
#3 Illinois St. over #6 Indiana St. (Illinois St. 69, Indiana St. 65)
Semifinals
Northern Iowa over Bradley (UNI 57, Bradley 40)
Illinois St. over Missouri St. (Wichita 65, Illinois St. 61)
Final
Northern Iowa over Illinois St. (UNI 67, Wichita 52)
7-2 Upset? You Can’t Pick That!
Why not? There was an 8-1 upset in the Atlantic Sun a few hours ago, followed by a 7-2 upset in the Patriot League. And this is the “Bizzaro Valley” (Whelliston). Anything can–and will–happen. These two teams have played close games all year with the Shockers winning by one possession both times. This 7-2 matchup actually seems closer than the 5-4.
Leading the Flock
I’ve exhausted my hands typing about experience in these conference tournaments, but history has shown it to be most valuable this time of year. Illinois St. has the strongest core of experience I have seen in any conference so far. The Redbirds are led by a trio of seniors, Osiris Eldridge, Dinma Odiakosa, and Lloyd Phillips, who all average double-digit scoring, combining to score 39.5 PPG. These guys were 3 points away from the Big Dance last year. They have played in two straight NIT’s both after losing to the MVC champion in the final.
Update 3/5/2010: I considered a 5-1 upset in this bracket. I think Bradley has the best chance at beating Northern Iowa. However, I didn’t pick it, mostly because I was concerned about Creighton getting in the way. Bradley beat Creighton handily this afternoon, 81-62. So watch out Panthers!
Update 3/7/2010: Northern Iowa beat Wichita St. by 15 to take the MVC championship for the 2nd straight year. They are the 5th team to earn a bid to this year’s NCAA Tournament.
The A-Sun is deep this year. Any of the top five seeds could take it. In fact, I highly doubt number one seed Lipscomb is going to come out on top. Belmont is always a safe choice. They’ve won this tournament 3 out of the last 4 years. However, I have been expecting Jacksonville to win this conference for years, and I think that with the leadership of seniors Ben Smith and Lehmon Colbert, who took this team to the NIT last year, this year is their bast chance yet.
1st Round
#1 Lipscomb over #8 Kennesaw St. (Kennesaw 72, Lipscomb 69)
#2 Jacksonville over #7 North Florida (J’ville 76, UNF 69)
2nd Round
#4 Campbell over #5 ETSU (ETSU 72, Campbell 64)
#3 Belmont over #6 Mercer (Mercer 87, Belmont 81)
Semifinals
Campbell over Lipscomb (ETSU 69, Kennesaw 64)
Jacksonville over Belmont (Mercer 66, J’ville 63)
Final
Jacksonville over Campbell (ETSU 72, Mercer 66)
Update 3/3/2010: In the opening game of the tournament, 8-seeded Kennesaw St. upset top-seeded Lipscomb. We projected Lipscomb to drop in the semifinals to Campbell or ETSU. They are a weak 1-seed, but nobody could pick an 8-1 upset. You’re not even supposed to pick a 7-2 upset (the Patriot League had one 2 years ago). Congratulations to the Owls, who achieved a huge upset in their first ever ASC tournament game. Considering this team won the Div. II national championship in 2004, we should have expected them to have a quick rise in the A-Sun.
Update 3/5/2010: Mercer came out on top of an exciting semifinal there they hung in as an obvious underdog against deeper, faster, and more experienced Jacksonville. The A-Sun final will now pair up #5 ETSU and #6 Mercer. Apparently the Sun is not five, but six teams deep!
Update 3/6/2010: ETSU beat Mercer 72-66 to head to their second straight NCAA tournament.
